Well it looks like there will be a minority Liberal government in Canada this term. Considering the polls said the Conservatives might form a minority government the final numbers are pretty surprising. For anyone reading this outside of Canada the Liberals have held a strong majority in parliament for the last three terms.

Ontario, Canada’s largest province, is the traditional Liberal stronghold. Ontario elects ~1/3 of the seats in parliament so this support has translated into a lot of seats. There have been a few screw-ups in the government recently that have hurt the Liberals pretty badly. Combine this with the fact that the traditionally divided political right has united into one party this election could have spelled doom for the Liberals. Indeed, the polls showed that the Liberals and Conservatives were running neck and neck. Why were the pre-election polls so far out? Here is my little theory on what happened. Ontarians didn’t want to elect the Conservatives but they did want to punish the Liberals for their problems. So, some Ontarians told the pollsters that they were not going to vote Liberal but when the day finally came support fell on the traditional side. I am a strong Liberal supporter but at the start of the election I probably would have done the same. Besides, lying to pollsters is fun.